Tides Ebb and Tides Flow...

We'll call this a live blog because the Indiana primary isn't over, but I'm filing my story anyways. Why? Because I'm watching Hillary's concession/victory speech right now, and she - if no one else - thinks she's won Indiana, and that seems to be good enough for her spectators.

She used Obama's words against him, as she's been doing for months. His misstep in claiming Indiana to be a tie-breaker is coming back to bite him...at least in Hillary-land. A man who is apparently not fit to be President is now smart enough of a political analyst to know a tie-breaker when he sees one (it's like the time in fourth grade when I accidentally walked into the girls bathroom ONE TIME and was forced to ignore people asking me why I wanted to be a girl for a month. I mean, every time I walk into the mens room, no one notices. But one little mistake, and I'm forced to move cities. Not fair).

But I was surprised when I got home this evening to find that CNN had not called the race for Hillary. I had left work thirty minutes prior where I had just read that CBS projected her the winner. So why the disparity? Is CNN running a covert anti-Hillary campaign intent on ending the race and putting to rest the weeks of debates and speculation that will surely come with an Indiana "victory" on the cable news shows? Or is CBS smart enough to know who it's audience is, those retired AARP members who love nothing more than an exciting night of Mike Wallace and CSI, and pushing for said group's favorite candidate?

(Side note: She's playing Mellencamp right now. Didn't he back Obama? And are you fucking kidding me with this Mellencamp bullshit? Why doesn't she just put on some overalls, get on top of a bale of hay, put a piece of straw in her mouth and talk about the good old days when her fourth cousin thrice removed told her about how she used to play around in bales of hey with straws in her mouth in a small Indiana town and get it over with?)

It's hard to say, although CNN is not going for Clinton's "victory" speech. They're talking about the look of dejection on Chelsea's face, and the look of indifference on Bill's. I will say that even CNN thinks she's going to win, they "just want to be sure." They've just wanted to be sure since the 2000 election when they weren't so sure, and chaos ensued. So you can't blame them for being careful. A Florida debacle is a touchy thing. It can make a network (Fox News) or it can break a network (every other news network).

So, where do we go now? As indicated by the clever title of this cleverly-written entry, tides turn. They apparently were turning in Pennsylvania, but as soon as they traveled a little south and west, the tide seemed to be turning back. There are two conflicting trains of thought here. The consistent theory is that (like the Gallup Poll has shown) people have made up their mind. Tides flow up and down very little, but it's a very close race that isn't changing and the end results will show a small win for Obama, but a win nonetheless.

The other slow train coming is the belief that the people's opinions are ever changing (which is why Hillary won Pennsylvania, and was apparently able to come back in Indiana) and that these recent victories do in fact represent some sort of shift in belief by everyone that Obama is not our guy. The problem with the first is that people have seen candidates in more varied light as time goes on, and opinions are bound to change when you get to know someone better (and it's very inconvenient for program directors who need to find more insignificant things to cover, like wars in Africa and South America). The fault with the second one is that two states represent one twenty-fifth of the percentage of states in our country (and let's not forget, let's NOT forget Puerto Rico, Guam and Hawaii).

As with all extremes, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Obama will win. Call it catching the right wave (tide metaphor number three), or the fact that he just might be who Democrats want to win the nomination. Hillary refuses to believe this. After all, Oregon hasn't voted yet. And as goes Oregon, so goes the world. So we'll just have to wait and see. Results are coming in the mysterious Lake County, and this might just be the end of the race (though most certainly not). Things are getting exciting, so I'm going to take a break and come back to you.
Isn't this exciting...so...how are you?...good thanks. Work's kickin' my ass, but you know what it's like...oh wait...something just happened.

CNN is now saying that Obama is winning the big cities, the ones where Democrats are. Marc Ambinder suggested earlier that there may be some strategic votes amongst Republicans for Democratic candidate they'd like to see lose to McCain. Is any of this true? I don't know, but they haven't called Indiana yet, and I'm tired. Until next time...